Frustrating forecast if you like snow....colder outlook....are computer models correct?

If you are a snow lover, this is a very frustrating forecast as most model runs are pulling the "heavier" snow of 2-5" down to our south into SD and S. MN.  Right now it appears that we may get only 1" out of this Saturday event.  No big storms in sight as the computer models keep the main storm track to our south.  Although a northward shift is possible, I just don't see it at this time. The models are not handling the upper levels in the atmosphere very well and this leads to possible large errors in the storm track.  This is something we will be watching over the next few weeks.  There is a LOT of arctic air just waiting to our north.  Although we will have a brief glancing blow of it early next week, it appears we modify things a bit by end of next week.  LONG range guidance, which often changes, IS pointing at bitter air moving south in February.  We have one piece of the puzzle in place for arctic air and stormier conditions (Greenland Block).....see yesterday's post but now we need an upper level ridge to build into the west end of North America to really see winter settle in.  Stay tuned: 

Chief Meteorologist

Dean Wysocki