Severe Weather Potential Monday 6-7-21

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk or a level 2 risk for severe weather on Monday. As a ridge starts to build out east in the Central Plains and Great Lakes, a mid/upper-level low will become more stationary/possibly even retrograde a little back to the west. A surface low-pressure system is expected to deepen (strengthen) over western and northwestern SD. While a warm will travel into ND which will be the main trigger for storm initiation.

Into the late afternoon storms will begin to fire in and around the Bismark and Jamestown area. Temperatures will range in the mid 80's to low 90's with forecasted dew-points in the low to mid 60's and ranging close to 70, which will be sufficient at creating a large amount of atmospheric instability. Going through the late afternoon and evening hours a low-level jet is forecast to increase/develop which will help support strong storm and supercell thunderstorms. These storms will track east and northeast and work their way into the central Red River Valley (RRV) into the late evening and early overnight hours however, it will be possible for a thunderstorm to pop up earlier in the evening.

The main concerns will be lightning, damaging wind and hail, and possibly an isolated tornado. Now I'm not saying there will be a high chance for tornadoes but I have circled the greatest potential for a tornado or two in the top image. As storms push east lightning, damaging winds, and hail will continue to be the main threat in the RRV but still... a possible isolated tornado cannot be ruled out at this time.

Chief meteorologist Dean Wysocki and I will continue to monitor this event through Monday and give additional updates as needed. Stay safe and be weather aware!

Meteorologist,

Justin Storm