We have mentioned the LRC a few times before and talked about it numerous times on air. Chief meteorologist Dean Wysocki has written a few very nice articles about this forecasting technique developed by Meteorologist Gary Lezak, I recommend looking for those past articles and giving them a quick read! What is the LRC? More or less a large-scale pattern that sets up every fall and "repeats" its self every so many days (cycles are different every year). In short, the LRC is a recurring pattern forecast that has delivered uncanny accuracy even months in advance, from our first large cold spill early this year. Our first heatwave in June, as well as tropical storm Claudette. What's the LRC saying now? Take a look at the bottom image that was produced a few weeks earlier.

Now just take a moment and study this image... The purple line is the LRC forecast, do things look similar to what we have already experienced so far this July? Coming off of a hot June we got a break in the heat briefly at the beginning of July after the 4th. Now things are warming back up through mid-month this week as the temperature warm back into the upper 80's. Following our mid-month "recovery" another large spike in heat across the region towards the end of the month is expected next. (keep in mind this graph is for our general area as a whole and not just 1 specific city or location.)

Looking at how things are going currently with our global patterns, signs are pointing towards a large Ridge developing across the western and central united states... similar to the ridge that brought record heat over the pacific northwest. The LRC showed this a month in advance and now Computer models are falling into an agreement of a large ridge developing and tracking some hot temperatures across the Northern Plains. See image 1 above... two longe range computer numerical models. The ECMWF or European Model forecasting triple-digit highs in Montana moving into North Dakota around the 20th of July while the GFS or American Model showing roughly the same just a few days later!

We will continue to monitor this potential heatwave and conditions continue to develop, but now three models in agreement (Two numerical longe range computer models, and the LRC) on some more hot weather for our already hot and dry summer...

 

Meteorologist,

Justin Storm