LRC and how it will impact our area in March and April

LRC....if you are a regular listener, you have heard me use this term MANY times.  LRC, (Lezak Recurring Cycle) is a different way to forecast long term weather.  Gary Lezak realized YEARS ago that there is a "cycling" pattern that sets up in early October and cycles through the rest of the year.  Each year, the cycle length is different.   It can be 30 days, 45 days, 52 days.  It all varies year to year.   We look for the upper air pattern that starts around Oct. 6th (see chart above)  Once this similar pattern "shows up again" we have our cycle length set.   THIS YEAR the LRC cycle length is right around 60 days give or take a few days.  It's been remarkably accurate a good 60 days out.   Remember back around Christmas we saw quite a few storms between Christmas and New Years.  Well it's THAT part of the cycle right now through the end of the month.  

Now each cycle can be similar but still a bit different, if that makes sense.  In other words, the weather won't ALWAYS be exact each cycle when it repeats but slightly different.  Let's give you an example: In late December we had 3-4 storms roll through....60 days later we had ONE storm that slapped our area, yesterday's blizzard, however, the other 2 storms are passing to our south.  So, the storms ARE there, but a little different track from the first cycle.

Now let's focus on March and April.    For March we will look at how January unfolded (60 days prior)   We had around 10" of snow in January with a few bigger storms.  Now we look at March and it looks a bit stormy at times.    Here's the key dates in March for possible storms.  Mark them on your calendar and let's see how accurate we are using the LRC. 

March target dates:   March 3rd - 6th:   Snow event, possible impactful

                                  March 8th   Snow event, likely minor

                                  March 11th  Snow event could be inpactful/30% goes south 

                                  March 17th   Snow event possible bigger one

                                 March 23-24th  and the 27th  Snow event possible big one

                                 March 31st.  Snow event

 

April target dates:  April 9-10th   Snow, could be big (It was a blizzard here in cycle one) 

                              April 16th  

                              April 21st  Could be big    

 

Snow is far from done, obviously and March holds quite a few storms, Now when we say "minor" it could be minor in terms of snowfall but it may have a LOT of wind with it like many this winter.  

If you are wondering about the spring?  According to the LRC it will likely be a STORMY spring across the northern cna central plains.  

 

Chief Meteorologist,

Dean Wysocki

                                  

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