WE NEED RAIN!! Models forecasting 0" to 1.3"

THIS kind of forecast is one that makes a meteorologist pull his hair out!!!  We really need the rain (most areas) and I'm not seeing a whole lot in the forecast.  We, however, do have a storm system riding our way for the upcoming weekend.  The LRC calendar   https://www.wdayradionow.com/weather/66298-lrc-calendar-weather-outlook-...   supports a  storm system this weekend.  It does look like this will pass to our south with the heaviest rains but still manage to bring rain to the southern valley with lesser amounts to the north. 

 

Let's examine a few of our models.  First the GFS (American Model) is showing NO precip for the F/M area.  The NAM is going gangbusters producing over 1" of rain for the F/M area.   The ECMWF (European) is producing up to 1/4"   So which model is correct?  Are ANY correct?   What we look for are "trends"    Is this system "trending" northward for all our models?  That's what we look for are "trends"  Are models trending northward, southward or remaining the same?   The "trend" is to move this system ever so slightly northward.   With that being said, I'm banking on the European with up to 1/4" to 1/2" with heavier rains into SD.   Again, if this storm shifts farther north, we get in on some heavier rains in the F/M area. 

Let's keep an eye on this storm for the weekend.  I'm not convinced on any widespread heavy rain for our area but we should still receive some much needed rainfall and SD looks to get a nice soaking.  

 

Chief Meteorologist,

Dean Wysocki

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