It has been a wild stretch of weather, a true case of March Weather Madness unfolding across the United States and even globally. The atmosphere is putting on a show that feels almost surreal for this time of year. Records are not just being challenged — they are being shattered in multiple regions at once, and the contrast from one location to another is striking.
So what is driving this pattern? Is this another signal of climate change, or are we witnessing the natural evolution of a powerful atmospheric cycle?
This is the atmosphere doing what it has always done — organizing itself into a repeating pattern. This is the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) in action. The same pattern that began taking shape last October is now cycling back through, bringing with it the same core structure — just expressed differently as we move from winter into spring.
While the LRC is the centerpiece of the atmospheric jigsaw puzzle, there are still other influences that matter. We factor those in as well, weighting them into our forecasting process. That combination — the LRC as the foundation, with these additional signals layered in — is what has helped us achieve some of the most accurate forecasts in the medium to longer ranges, extending weeks to even months in advance.
One of those key influencers is the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This is something we always monitor closely because when it makes big moves, the atmosphere responds.
Look at what has been happening since the beginning of March — a sharp rise into strongly positive territory. That shift has helped open the door for the record-breaking warmth we are now experiencing across much of the country.
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Another big influence driving the weather pattern is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This is a longer-term signal that we always factor in, especially when we’re looking ahead beyond just the current cycle.
Right now, ENSO is in the middle of a phase change. It is trending toward a neutral state, but there are increasing signals that El Niño may redevelop as we head into next winter. That will become more and more important as we move through the summer and begin watching the formation of the next LRC pattern this fall.
As always, the key is understanding how these pieces fit together. The LRC provides the structure — the blueprint of the atmosphere — while ENSO helps influence how that pattern expresses itself over time.
